Towards an ecological modelling approach for assessing ionizing radiation impact on wildlife populations.

The emphasis of the international system of radiological protection of the environment is to protect populations of flora and fauna. Throughout the MODARIA programmes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has facilitated knowledge sharing, data gathering and model development on the effect of radiation on wildlife. We present a summary of the achievements of MODARIA I and II on wildlife dose effect modelling, extending to a new sensitivity analysis and model development to incorporate other stressors. We reviewed evidence on historical doses and transgenerational effects on wildlife from radioactively contaminated areas. We also evaluated chemical population modelling approaches, discussing similarities and differences between chemical and radiological impact assessment in wildlife. We developed population modelling methodologies by sourcing life history and radiosensitivity data and evaluating the available models, leading to the formulation of an ecosystem-based mathematical approach. This resulted in an ecologically relevant conceptual population model, which we used to produce advice on the evaluation of risk criteria used in the radiological protection of the environment and a proposed modelling extension for chemicals. This work seeks to inform stakeholder dialogue on factors influencing wildlife population responses to radiation, including discussions on the ecological relevance of current environmental protection criteria. The area of assessment of radiation effects in wildlife is still developing with underlying data and models continuing to be improved. IAEA's ongoing support to facilitate the sharing of new knowledge, models and approaches to Member States is highlighted, and we give suggestions for future developments in this regard.

Modelling the radioactive contamination of commercial fish species in the Barents Sea following a hypothetical short-term release to the Stepovogo Bay of Novaya Zemlya.

A dynamic modelling of radionuclides accumulation in commercial species in the Barents Sea is performed for hypothetical SCR accident with the dumped submarine K-27 at the Stepovogo Bay. Box radioecological model is employed for calculating the radionuclides dynamics in water, bottom sediments and marine biota. The model takes into account the seasonal fish migrations in the Barents Sea. The model allows predicting the dynamic effects of the radionuclide transfer in fish in case of an accidental water contamination. Maximum 137Cs activity concentrations in bottom sediments from the eastern part of the Barents Sea could be reached as late as 5-6 years after the accidental release. Based on the results of model calculations, assessment was made of doses to humans from consumption of seafood contaminated after a hypothetical SCR accident with K-27 at the Stepovogo Bay. The peak activity concentration of the released 137Cs in fish from the Stepovogo Bay is calculated to be 109 Bq∙kg-1, 90Sr - 12 Bq∙kg-1; both estimates are below the permissible activity concentrations of these radionuclides in commercial fish. Predicted maximum annual dose from consumption of fish from the Stepovogo Bay is 47 ± 18 µSv∙year-1, the Barents Sea fish - less than 3∙10-6 µSv∙year-1.137Cs is the major dose contributor; it provides more than 99% to the annual dose Radiation risks from consumption of the Barents Sea commercial fish are evaluated to be negligible in case of a hypothetical SCR accident with the submerged submarine K-27 in Stepovogo Bay of Novaya Zemlya.

Determination of radionuclide composition of the Russian NPPs atmospheric releases and dose assessment to population.

Original data on radionuclide activities in air emissions of Russian NPPs are presented based on direct on-site measurements in vent stacks of NPPs during an extensive survey in 2017-2018. For the first time, the detailed inventories of radionuclides in the air releases were directly measured for all types of nuclear reactors, employed in the Russian NPPs. Based on the results of measurements, annual doses for local populations around the Russian NPPs were estimated. The technogenic radionuclides, detected in the air emissions, were ranked according to their contribution in the annual dose. 14C is the major contributor for the annual dose from the atmospheric releases of LWGR reactors - almost 98% for Bilibino NPP's EGP-6 reactor, and up to 86% for RBMK-1000 reactors (Smolensk NPP). For PWR reactors (VVER) contribution to the annual dose from atmospheric releases is formed mostly by tritium, 14C and noble gases. Estimated annual doses for local populations in the vicinity of the Russian NPPs do not exceed 10-5 Sv/year. Atmospheric releases of 60Co, 134Cs, 137Cs and other aerosols, involved in the routine monitoring programs of Russian NPPs, do not contribute significantly to the annual dose. Based on these results, 14C and tritium will be included in the monitoring programs of atmospheric release control at all Russian NPPs; maximal permissible levels of annual releases for 14C and tritium will be established since 2019.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

Radionuclide biological half-life values for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife.

The equilibrium concentration ratio is typically the parameter used to estimate organism activity concentrations within wildlife dose assessment tools. Whilst this is assumed to be fit for purpose, there are scenarios such as accidental or irregular, fluctuating, releases from licensed facilities when this might not be the case. In such circumstances, the concentration ratio approach may under- or over-estimate radiation exposure depending upon the time since the release. To carrying out assessments for such releases, a dynamic approach is needed. The simplest and most practical option is representing the uptake and turnover processes by first-order kinetics, for which organism- and element-specific biological half-life data are required. In this paper we describe the development of a freely available international database of radionuclide biological half-life values. The database includes 1907 entries for terrestrial, freshwater, riparian and marine organisms. Biological half-life values are reported for 52 elements across a range of wildlife groups (marine = 9, freshwater = 10, terrestrial = 7 and riparian = 3 groups). Potential applications and limitations of the database are discussed.

Modelling the effects of ionizing radiation on survival of animal population: acute versus chronic exposure.

The objective of the present paper was application of a model, which was originally developed to simulate chronic ionizing radiation effects in a generic isolated population, to the case of acute exposure, and comparison of the dynamic features of radiation effects on the population survival in cases of acute and chronic exposure. Two modes of exposure were considered: acute exposure (2-35 Gy) and chronic lifetime exposure with the same integrated dose. Calculations were made for a generic mice population; however, the model can be applied for other animals with proper selection of parameter values. In case of acute exposure, in the range 2-11 Gy, the population response was in two phases. During a first phase, there was a depletion in population survival; the second phase was a recovery period due to reparation of damage and biosynthesis of new biomass. Model predictions indicate that a generic mice population, living in ideal conditions, has the potential for recovery (within a mouse lifetime period) from acute exposure with dose up to 10-11 Gy, i.e., the population may recover from doses above an LD50 (6.2 Gy). Following acute doses above 14 Gy, however, the mice population went to extinction without recovery. In contrast, under chronic lifetime exposures (500 days), radiation had little effect on population survival up to integrated doses of 14-15 Gy, so the survival of a population subjected to chronic exposure was much better compared with that after an acute exposure with the same dose. Due to the effect of "wasted radiation", the integrated dose of chronic exposure could be about two times higher than acute dose, producing the same effect on survival. It is concluded that the developed generic population model including the repair of radiation damage can be applied both to acute and chronic modes of exposure; results of calculations for generic mice population are in qualitative agreement with published data on radiation effects in mice.

Dynamics of radiation exposure to marine biota in the area of the Fukushima NPP in March-May 2011.

Estimates of radiation dose rates are presented for marine biota in March-May 2011 in the coastal zone near Fukushima NPP, and in the open sea. Calculations of fish contamination were made using two methods: a concentration factor approach, and a dynamic model. For representative marine organisms (fish and molluscs) the radiation dose rates did not exceed the reference level of 10 mGy/day. At a distance 30 km from the NPP, in the open sea the radiation doses for marine biota were much lower than those in the coastal zone near the NPP. Comparative estimates are presented for radiation doses to aquatic organisms in the exclusion zones of the Eastern Urals Radioactive Trail, and the Chernobyl NPP.

Radiation effects in generic populations inhabiting a limiting environment.

A generic population model is formulated for radiation risk assessment of natural biota. The model demonstrates that effects of radiation on the population survival do not follow directly the effects on individual organisms. Dose rates resulting in population extinction can be analytically calculated. Besides individual radiosensitivity, two key parameters were found to determine the survival potential of a population under chronic radiation stress: the ratio "biomass losses/biomass synthesis," and the lump amount of limiting resource in the environment. A benchmark scenario "Population response to chronic irradiation" developed within the IAEA Programme EMRAS II was calculated for generic populations of mice, hare/rabbit, wolf/wild dog, and deer/goat chronically exposed to different levels of ionizing radiation. In the conditions of the benchmark scenario, model populations survived normally (>90% of the control value) at dose rates below the following levels: 3 mGy day(-1) for wolf/wild dog; 10 mGy day(-1) for deer/goat; 14 mGy day(-1) for hare/rabbit; and 20 mGy day(-1) for mice. The model predictions showed a relatively high survival potential of short-lived and productive species such as mice. At the same time, populations of long-lived animals with slow and radiosensitive reproduction such as wolf/wild dog were candidates to extinction at chronic exposures above 5 mGy day(-1). Recovery of short-lived and productive species took a much shorter time compared with long-lived and slow reproductive species.

Comparative analysis of doses to aquatic biota in water bodies impacted by radioactive contamination.

Comparative analysis of doses to the reference species of freshwater biota was performed for the following water bodies in Russia or former USSR: Chernobyl NPPs cooling pond, Lakes Uruskul and Berdenish located in the Eastern Urals Radioactive Trace, Techa River, Yenisei River. It was concluded that the doses to biota were considerably different in the acute and chronic periods of radioactive contamination. The most vulnerable part of all considered aquatic ecosystems was benthic trophic chain. A numerical scale on the "dose rate - effects" relationships for fish was formulated. Threshold dose rates above which radiation effects can be expected in fish were evaluated to be the following: 1 mGy d(-1) for appearance of the first morbidity effects in fish; 5 mGy d(-1) for the first negative effects on reproduction system; 10 mGy d(-1) for the first effects on life shortening of fish. The results of dose assessment to biota were compared with the scale "dose rate - effects" and the literature data on the radiobiological effects observed in the considered water bodies. It was shown that in the most contaminated water bodies the dose rates were high enough to cause the radiobiological effects in fish.

Manifestation of radiation effects in cold environment: data review and modeling.

The peculiarities of radiation response in animals at low environmental temperatures are analyzed in the context of radiation safety of the Arctic/Northern wildlife. The paper includes a data review on radiation effects in cold environments based on international and Russian publications since 1948, which forms a supplement to the EPIC and FREDERICA data collections. In homoiothermic and heterothermic animals, imbalances in thermoregulation caused by ionizing radiation are discussed, which increase energy loss of animals, and decrease their fitness to the Arctic/Northern climate. In poikilothermic animals, both radiation damage and recovery are temperature dependent, their rates being slow in the cold environment. At low temperatures, radiation damage of biological tissues is conserved in hidden form; when the temperature of poikilothermic animal rises to a normal level, radiation injury is developed rapidly similar to acute dose response. Additionally, a mathematical model is described, demonstrating the combined effects of chronic radiation exposures and seasonal temperature variations on a fish population. Computer simulations show that at the same level of irradiation, the overall radiation damage to Arctic/Northern poikilothermic fish is higher than that to the fish from warm climate. Considering the peculiarities of radiation effects in the cold climate, the Arctic/Northern fauna might be expected to be more vulnerable to chronic radiation stress compared to temperate fauna. In the case of acute radiation exposure during winter periods, hibernation of heterothermic and cooling of poikilothermic animals may provide temporary protection from acute radiation effects.

An international model validation exercise on radionuclide transfer and doses to freshwater biota.

Under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) programme, activity concentrations of (60)Co, (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (3)H in Perch Lake at Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's Chalk River Laboratories site were predicted, in freshwater primary producers, invertebrates, fishes, herpetofauna and mammals using eleven modelling approaches. Comparison of predicted radionuclide concentrations in the different species types with measured values highlighted a number of areas where additional work and understanding is required to improve the predictions of radionuclide transfer. For some species, the differences could be explained by ecological factors such as trophic level or the influence of stable analogues. Model predictions were relatively poor for mammalian species and herpetofauna compared with measured values, partly due to a lack of relevant data. In addition, concentration ratios are sometimes under-predicted when derived from experiments performed under controlled laboratory conditions representative of conditions in other water bodies.

A review and test of predictive models for the bioaccumulation of radiostrontium in fish.

Empirical relations between the (90)Sr concentration factor (CF) and the calcium concentration in freshwater aquatic systems have previously been determined in studies based on data obtained prior to the Chernobyl accident. The purpose of the present research is to review and compare these models, and to test them against a database of post-Chernobyl measurements from rivers and lakes in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Finland. It was found that two independently developed models, based on pre-Chernobyl empirical data, are in close agreement with each other, and with empirical data. Testing of both models against new data obtained after the Chernobyl accident confirms the models' predictive ability. An investigation of the influence of fish size on (90)Sr accumulation showed no significant relationship, though the data set was somewhat limited.

[The reconstruction of radiation dose and risk assessment for population living near the Enisei River from the long-term period of exploitation of the Krasnoyarsk mining and chemical enterprise (1975-2000)].

Radiation doses and risks for population living near the Yenisei River have been reconstructed for the long-term period of radioactive discharges from Krasnoyarsk NCC to the river (1975-2000). The analysis of multiple pathways show that the consumption of local fish was the major contributor to the radiation dose to population living near the Yenisei River (more than 90%). 32P was the most important contributor among the discharged radionuclides at the distances 0-100 km downstream the Krasnoyarsk NCC. The maximum annual dose to critical group of population at the nearest area of the Krasnoyarsk NCC was estimated to be 0.95 mSv/year (in 1977), at the same time in settlement located 800 km downstream the discharge source it was 0.2 mSv/year. Since 1993, the doses to population do not exceed 0.02 mSv/year even for nearest area the Krasnoyarsk NCC (0-100 km downstream the discharge source).

Non-parametric estimation of thresholds for radiation effects in vertebrate species under chronic low-LET exposures.

Databases on effects of chronic low-LET radiation exposure were analyzed by non-parametric statistical methods, to estimate the threshold dose rates above which radiation effects can be expected in vertebrate organisms. Data were grouped under three umbrella endpoints: effects on morbidity, reproduction, and life shortening. The data sets were compiled on a simple 'yes' or 'no' basis. Each data set included dose rates at which effects were reported without further details about the size or peculiarity of the effects. In total, the data sets include 84 values for endpoint "morbidity", 77 values for reproduction, and 41 values for life shortening. The dose rates in each set were ranked from low to higher values. The threshold TDR5 for radiation effects of a given umbrella type was estimated as a dose rate below which only a small percentage (5%) of data reported statistically significant radiation effects. The statistical treatment of the data sets was performed using non-parametric order statistics, and the bootstrap method. The resulting thresholds estimated by the order statistics are for morbidity effects 8.1 x 10(-4) Gy day(-1) (2.0 x 10(-4)-1.0 x 10(-3)), reproduction effects 6.0 x 10(-4) Gy day(-1) (4.0 x 10(-4)-1.5 x 10(-3)), and life shortening 3.0 x 10(-3) Gy day(-1) (1.0 x 10(-3)-6.0 x 10(-3)), respectively. The bootstrap method gave slightly lower values: 2.1 x 10(-4) Gy day(-1) (1.4 x 10(-4)-3.2 x 10(-4)) (morbidity), 4.1 x 10(-4) Gy day(-1) (3.0 x 10(-4)-5.7 x 10(-4)) (reproduction), and 1.1 x 10(-3) Gy day(-1) (7.9 x 10(-4)-1.3 x 10(-3)) (life shortening), respectively. The generic threshold dose rate (based on all umbrella types of effects) was estimated at 1.0 x 10(-3) Gy day(-1).

Model testing of radioactive contamination by 90Sr, 137Cs and 239,240Pu of water and bottom sediments in the Techa River (Southern Urals, Russia).

This paper presents results of testing models for the radioactive contamination of river water and bottom sediments by (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (239,240)Pu. The scenario for the model testing was based on data from the Techa River (Southern Urals, Russia), which was contaminated as a result of discharges of liquid radioactive waste into the river. The endpoints of the scenario were model predictions of the activity concentrations of (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (239,240)Pu in water and bottom sediments along the Techa River in 1996. Calculations for the Techa scenario were performed by six participant teams from France (model CASTEAUR), Italy (model MARTE), Russia (models TRANSFER-2, CASSANDRA, GIDRO-W) and Ukraine (model RIVTOX), all using different models. As a whole, the radionuclide predictions for (90)Sr in water for all considered models, (137)Cs for MARTE and TRANSFER-2, and (239,240)Pu for TRANSFER-2 and CASSANDRA can be considered sufficiently reliable, whereas the prediction for sediments should be considered cautiously. At the same time the CASTEAUR and RIVTOX models estimate the activity concentrations of (137)Cs and (239,240)Pu in water more reliably than in bottom sediments. The models MARTE ((239,240)Pu) and CASSANDRA ((137)Cs) evaluated the activity concentrations of radionuclides in sediments with about the same agreement with observations as for water. For (90)Sr and (137)Cs the agreement between empirical data and model predictions was good, but not for all the observations of (239,240)Pu in the river water-bottom sediment system. The modelling of (239,240)Pu distribution proved difficult because, in contrast to (137)Cs and (90)Sr, most of models have not been previously tested or validated for plutonium.

Inter-comparison of models to estimate radionuclide activity concentrations in non-human biota.

A number of models have recently been, or are currently being, developed to enable the assessment of radiation doses from ionising radiation to non-human species. A key component of these models is the ability to predict whole-organism activity concentrations in a wide range of wildlife. In this paper, we compare the whole-organism activity concentrations predicted by eight models participating within the IAEA Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety programme for a range of radionuclides to terrestrial and freshwater organisms. In many instances, there was considerable variation, ranging over orders of magnitude, between the predictions of the different models. Reasons for this variability (including methodology, data source and data availability) are identified and discussed. The active participation of groups responsible for the development of key models within this exercise is a useful step forward in providing the transparency in methodology and data provenance required for models which are either currently being used for regulatory purposes or which may be used in the future. The work reported in this paper, and supported by other findings, demonstrates that the largest contribution to variability between model predictions is the parameterisation of their transfer components. There is a clear need to focus efforts and provide authoritative compilations of those data which are available.

[Modelling of fish contamination with 90Sr in relation to the calcium concentrations in water].

A set of data on the equilibrium concentration factors of 90Sr in fish in relation to the Ca concentrations in water was collected and analyzed. An empiric relationship was obtained on the basis of statistical processing of this dataset: CF(90Sr, Bq/kg w.w.) = 3940(1770-6110)/[Ca, mg/L]water. The range of observed data on the concentration factors of 90Sr in fish is from 20 to 4000 L/kg (about 200 times). The statistical relationship obtained in the paper allows one to reduce this uncertainty by more than 50 times. The formula adequately describes equilibrium concentration factors of 90Sr both in freshwater and in marine fish. A dynamics model approach is described for the cases of accidental contamination of water bodies, when the equilibrium approaches are not appropriate.

Assessment of permissible levels of radionuclides in soil for different types of land-use.

Permissible levels of radionuclides in soil were estimated for different human dose criteria. A variety of land-use scenarios, which could lead to human exposure, was considered and all reasonably likely human exposure pathways were analyzed. The obtained estimates are potentially useful for supporting the decision-making process on the possible use or remediation of contaminated territories.

Modelling of effects due to chronic exposure of a fish population to ionizing radiation.

A dynamic model was developed for description of radiation effects in an isolated fish population chronically exposed at different dose rates. The induced effects were predicted based on damage created by the radiation, recovery by means of repair mechanisms, and natural growth of the population. Three types of radiation effects (umbrella endpoints) were simulated--decrease of population size, decrease of reproductive capacity, and effects on the morbidity of the population. The influence of ecological interactions on the irradiated fish population was simulated using the combined action of radiation and parasite infestation as an example (ecological interaction "host-parasite"). The model calculations demonstrate that influence of ecological interactions can considerably aggravate the effects of radiation to an exposed population. It was concluded that development of standards for wildlife protection against ionizing radiation requires consideration of possible ecological interactions and to take into account the ecological effects of radiation.

Inter-comparison of absorbed dose rates for non-human biota.

A number of approaches have been proposed to estimate the exposure of non-human biota to ionizing radiation. This paper reports an inter-comparison of the unweighted absorbed dose rates for the whole organism (compared as dose conversion coefficients, or DCCs) for both internal and external exposure, estimated by 11 of these approaches for selected organisms from the Reference Animals and Plants geometries as proposed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Inter-comparison results indicate that DCCs for internal exposure compare well between the different approaches, whereas variation is greater for external exposure DCCs. Where variation among internal DCCs is greatest, it is generally due to different daughter products being included in the DCC of the parent. In the case of external exposures, particularly to low-energy beta-emitters, variations are most likely to be due to different media densities being assumed. On a radionuclide-by-radionuclide basis, the different approaches tend to compare least favourably for (3)H, (14)C and the alpha-emitters. This is consistent with models with different source/target geometry assumptions showing maximum variability in output for the types of radiation having the lowest range across matter. The intercomparison demonstrated that all participating approaches to biota dose calculation are reasonably comparable, despite a range of different assumptions being made.